What is trading expectancy?

The average amount you make or lose per entry: win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. Positive expectancy over 100+ trades means the approach has an edge; win rate alone does not.

What is a good profit factor?

Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss. Under 1.0 loses money; 1.0–1.3 is a thin edge that fees and one tilt session erase; 1.3–1.8 is a solid discretionary edge; above 2.0 is excellent or a small sample.

How is the break-even win rate calculated?

Average loss ÷ (average win + average loss). If your real win rate is below it, the sizing loses money regardless of discipline.

How do you measure the cost of tilt?

Count the entries taken within 90 minutes of two consecutive losses, take their average result, and compare it with your normal expectancy. The gap times the number of tilt entries is the monthly cost.

Free tool

Expectancy calculator

Win rate, average win, average loss — that is all it takes to know whether you have an edge, what it is worth per month, and what your tilt entries cost. Works for trades and for bets.

Win rate%Winning entries ÷ all entries, last 100–200 trades.Average win$Average net profit on winning entries (after fees).Average loss$Average net loss on losing entries, as a positive number.Entries per monthTrades or bets you actually take in a month.

Expectancy per entry

$11.01

What one entry is worth, on average

Profit factor

1.16

Gross profit ÷ gross loss

Break-even win rate

39.4%

You are at 43.0% — above break-even

Reward : risk

1.54 : 1

Average win ÷ average loss

Expected result per month

$440.40

40 entries × $11.01 expectancy. Over 100+ entries the realized result converges on this; over 20 it is mostly variance.

Cost of tilt

Entries taken within 90 minutes of two consecutive losses usually do worse than the rest. Count them in your log and enter their average result.

Tilt entries per monthEntries within 90 min of 2 consecutive losses.Average result of those entries$Usually negative. Use a minus sign.

Net result of tilt entries

-$972

What they actually made or lost

Cost vs your normal expectancy

$1,104.12

Per month — about $13,249.44 a year

A "stop after 2 losses" rule removes these entries by construction. Everything on this page is computed in your browser; nothing is stored or sent.

How to read the numbers

Expectancy is the average result of one entry. It is the number that replaces "my win rate is 70%": a 70% win rate with wins half the size of the losses has negative expectancy. Formulas and a worked example: how to calculate expectancy and profit factor.

Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss. It is the robustness check on expectancy: a 1.1 profit factor can turn negative with one bad session; a 1.5 survives it.

Break-even win rate depends only on your average win and loss sizes. If you are below it, discipline will not save the approach; sizing or exits will.

Cost of tilt is the part most calculators skip. Split your log into entries taken within 90 minutes of two consecutive losses and everything else; the difference in average result is what the condition costs you. How to find them in your data: tilt in trading. Log template: free trading journal CSV.

Questions

What is trading expectancy?: The average amount you make or lose per entry: win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. Positive expectancy over 100+ trades means the approach has an edge; win rate alone does not.
What is a good profit factor?: Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss. Under 1.0 loses money; 1.0–1.3 is a thin edge that fees and one tilt session erase; 1.3–1.8 is a solid discretionary edge; above 2.0 is excellent or a small sample.
How is the break-even win rate calculated?: Average loss ÷ (average win + average loss). If your real win rate is below it, the sizing loses money regardless of discipline.
How do you measure the cost of tilt?: Count the entries taken within 90 minutes of two consecutive losses, take their average result, and compare it with your normal expectancy. The gap times the number of tilt entries is the monthly cost.